Life beyond peak oil
Life beyond peak oil
Consumption - World - 80 Mbbls/day, US - 20 Mbbls/day (42 gal/bbl) - for gal/yr multiply * 15000

World reserves - 2.2 Tbbl
World oil production - mathematical functions (Energy Information Administration)
1- Reserves divided by average production

2- Normal curve - if all oil wells were the same

3- Lognormal curve - accounts for variation in sources

4 - Likely detailed distribution
Drake - 1859 (50 bbl/day) vs. spindletop (1901 - 80 Kbbl/day) - note how many spindletops the world now requires

Oil well size distribution - largest wells dominate production, many are past peak prodcution
Ghawar - Saudi Arabia (75Gbbl), Burgan - Kuwait (70Gbbl), Cantarell - Mex (35Gbbl)
Bolivar - Venez (30Gbbl), Khafji - Saudi Arabia (30Gbbl), Rumaila - Iraq (20Gbbl), Prudhoe Bay - (13Gbbl)
Rate at which oil can be pumped - strata are porous, we can't simply double the speed of pumps

Tar sands ~10% bitumen, it takes lots of energy to recover this oil

Smart cars (60 hp 3 cyl), hybrids - excellent ways to conserve

Energy density - limitation for electric cars
Car battery - 40 Wh/Kg

Gasoline - 13,000 Wh/Kg
LNG (~90% methane) - natural gas will peak 5-15 yrs after oil

Wind (Intermittent) varies with geographic location
Third power of speed, windmills typically 0.5-5 MW

Long-term potential roughly 5x current global energy consumption

About twice the cost of fossil fuel plants, Subsidized in US
Solar (Intermittent, up to 800 W/M2) - see geographic distribution
Solar panels about $4/W
EROEI (energy return over energy invested), Oil - 25, Coal 9, Corn EtOH 1.1, Sugar cane EtOH 1.7, Wind 2, Tar sands 1.7

Hydrogen - not an energy source, but a storage medium

Nuclear (future)

Biodiesel - esterified fatty acids - soybeans ~100 Gal/acre, oil palm ~600 Gal/acre

Ethanol - E10, E85
Sugar based - corn, 2.7Gal/bushel, ~250 Gal/acre; sugar cane, ~600 Gal/acre

Cellulose based - corn stover, switchgrass (technology poorly developed)

Energy 30% less than gasoline

Transport and handling problems
City planning - Most American cities aren't designed for public transport