Life beyond peak oil
Life beyond peak oilPetroleumConsumption - World - 80 Mbbls/day, US - 20 Mbbls/day (42 gal/bbl) - for gal/yr multiply * 15000World oil production - mathematical functions (Energy Information Administration)
World reserves - 2.2 Tbbl1- Reserves divided by average productionDrake - 1859 (50 bbl/day) vs. spindletop (1901 - 80 Kbbl/day) - note how many spindletops the world now requires
2- Normal curve - if all oil wells were the same
3- Lognormal curve - accounts for variation in sources
4 - Likely detailed distribution
Oil well size distribution - largest wells dominate production, many are past peak prodcutionGhawar - Saudi Arabia (75Gbbl), Burgan - Kuwait (70Gbbl), Cantarell - Mex (35Gbbl)Rate at which oil can be pumped - strata are porous, we can't simply double the speed of pumps
Bolivar - Venez (30Gbbl), Khafji - Saudi Arabia (30Gbbl), Rumaila - Iraq (20Gbbl), Prudhoe Bay - (13Gbbl)
Tar sands ~10% bitumen, it takes lots of energy to recover this oil
Smart cars (60 hp 3 cyl), hybrids - excellent ways to conserve
Energy density - limitation for electric carsCar battery - 40 Wh/KgLNG (~90% methane) - natural gas will peak 5-15 yrs after oil
Gasoline - 13,000 Wh/Kg
Wind (Intermittent) varies with geographic locationThird power of speed, windmills typically 0.5-5 MWSolar (Intermittent, up to 800 W/M2) - see geographic distribution
Long-term potential roughly 5x current global energy consumption
About twice the cost of fossil fuel plants, Subsidized in USSolar panels about $4/WEROEI (energy return over energy invested), Oil - 25, Coal 9, Corn EtOH 1.1, Sugar cane EtOH 1.7, Wind 2, Tar sands 1.7
Hydrogen - not an energy source, but a storage medium
Nuclear (future)
Biodiesel - esterified fatty acids - soybeans ~100 Gal/acre, oil palm ~600 Gal/acre
Ethanol - E10, E85Sugar based - corn, 2.7Gal/bushel, ~250 Gal/acre; sugar cane, ~600 Gal/acreCity planning - Most American cities aren't designed for public transport
Cellulose based - corn stover, switchgrass (technology poorly developed)
Energy 30% less than gasoline
Transport and handling problems